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Object 2024 YR4

Objeto 2024 YR4

Summary Todo - Orbit Órbita - Encounters Encuentros - Risk Riesgo

Orbital properties (orbit 62)

Orbital elements
Eccentricity0.661551 ± 4.83e-6
Semi-major axis [au]2.51589 ± 3.38e-5
Perihelion distance [au]0.8515000 ± 7.05e-7
Inclination; angle with respect to x-y ecliptic plane [deg]3.40818 ± 1.77e-5
Longitude of the ascending node [deg]271.365616 ± 9.62e-6
Argument of perihelion [deg]134.36136 ± 2.10e-5
Mean anomaly [deg]40.4022 ± 8.28e-4
Time of perihelion passage [TDB]2460636.91759 ± 5.34e-5
Sidereal orbital period [d]1457.59 ± 2.94e-2
Mean motion [deg/d]0.246984 ± 4.98e-6
Aphelion distance [au]4.18027 ± 5.62e-5

Orbital corner plot

Countdown to next encounter (potential impact) of 2024 YR4 (orbit 62)



Impact conditions in 2032-12-22T14:09:36.000
Orbit number 62 [2025-02-22T07:35:31]
Impact probability10.36% ± 0.03%
Date of impact2032-12-22
Time of impact13:57:47 UTC [13:56:27, 14:17:02]
Impact centroidlon = -1.3e+1o, lat = 1.61o
Impact trailini: [-9.6e+1o,6.88o], end: [87.93o,19.85o]
Impact speed17.00 km/s [16.89, 17.37]
Zenithal angle of impact349.12o [10.54, 103.68]
  1. Probability computed by [PY]mpact Team. See our scientific products for details.
  • Dates and geodetic coordinates are calculated for the minimum, median and maximum longitude in the impact trail.
  • Impact speed and zenithal angle is calculated for the median value and the 5th and 95th percentiles.

Georisk for 2024 YR4

Principal municipalities in the core area (distance < 10.0 km)

Municipality Distance to trail (km) Population
SAN MARTÍN, META 8.00 22299
GRANADA, META 9.12 63408

Total affected (including rural and urban): 91887

Principal municipalities in the risk area (distance < 50.0 km)

Municipality Distance to trail (km) Population
SAN MARTÍN, META 8.00 22299
GRANADA, META 9.12 63408
FUENTE DE ORO, META 17.11 10607
CASTILLA LA NUEVA, META 22.17 12533
GUAMAL, META 26.46 13667
PURIFICACIÓN, TOLIMA 30.33 21826
ACACÍAS, META 38.64 72796
SALDAÑA, TOLIMA 41.86 13832
GUAMO, TOLIMA 43.91 30061
NATAGAIMA, TOLIMA 48.12 13703
ESPINAL, TOLIMA 49.06 66726
MELGAR, TOLIMA 49.47 32833

Total affected (including rural and urban): 504538

Principal municipalities in the shattering area (distance < 100.0 km)

Municipality Distance to trail (km) Population
SAN MARTÍN, META 8.00 22299
GRANADA, META 9.12 63408
FUENTE DE ORO, META 17.11 10607
CASTILLA LA NUEVA, META 22.17 12533
GUAMAL, META 26.46 13667
PURIFICACIÓN, TOLIMA 30.33 21826
ACACÍAS, META 38.64 72796
SALDAÑA, TOLIMA 41.86 13832
GUAMO, TOLIMA 43.91 30061
NATAGAIMA, TOLIMA 48.12 13703
ESPINAL, TOLIMA 49.06 66726
MELGAR, TOLIMA 49.47 32833
VILLAVICENCIO, META 55.59 444291
VISTAHERMOSA, META 55.99 12474
COYAIMA, TOLIMA 57.15 18489
FLANDES, TOLIMA 59.32 26027
PUERTO LÓPEZ, META 61.48 25612
SAN LUIS, TOLIMA 62.04 11745
GIRARDOT, CUNDINAMARCA 62.74 93858
ORTEGA, TOLIMA 63.26 28869
FUSAGASUGÁ, CUNDINAMARCA 67.91 130879
AGUA DE DIOS, CUNDINAMARCA 68.27 10103
RESTREPO, META 71.01 16750
SILVANIA, CUNDINAMARCA 72.43 21375
CUMARAL, META 73.28 19669
VIOTÁ, CUNDINAMARCA 76.99 12300
TOCAIMA, CUNDINAMARCA 77.70 13357
ATACO, TOLIMA 80.12 17156
CÁQUEZA, CUNDINAMARCA 81.46 15387
ROVIRA, TOLIMA 81.81 18814
AIPE, HUILA 85.64 13064
SIBATÉ, CUNDINAMARCA 86.73 31317
CHAPARRAL, TOLIMA 88.94 40889
SAN ANTONIO, TOLIMA 90.43 10341
ANAPOIMA, CUNDINAMARCA 90.44 12325
FÓMEQUE, CUNDINAMARCA 91.15 10646
TELLO, HUILA 91.76 10008
EL COLEGIO, CUNDINAMARCA 93.37 22541
IBAGUÉ, TOLIMA 93.85 492726
CHOACHÍ, CUNDINAMARCA 95.27 10222
SOACHA, CUNDINAMARCA 96.85 661655
PUERTO GAITÁN, META 98.27 32358
SAN ANTONIO DEL TEQUENDAMA, CUNDINAMARCA 98.89 10164
LA MESA, CUNDINAMARCA 98.91 29025

Total affected (including rural and urban): 3003814

Impact trail for 2024 YR4 in 2032-12-22T14:09:36.000 (orbit 62)